Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Thunder (51%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (30%) · Kings at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Thunder51¢Kings49¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$7.59

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 49.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder51%

Kings50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings3 traders

Total Value$674.77

Total Shares1,364

Combined PnL+$6.72

Thunder7 traders

Total Value$526.48

Total Shares1,030

Combined PnL+$0.87

Kings — 30%Thunder — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehcCTR	Kingsavg 49¢	$657.53	$664.24	+$6.71	36% 63-110 (173)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kingsavg 48.4¢	$342.94	$346.91	+$3.97	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48.4¢	$220.54	$225.71	+$5.17
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 51¢	$122.4	$121.2	-$1.2
GC GC-P	Thunderavg 51¢	$178.5	$176.75	-$1.75	42% 548-747 (1295)
NM NM-P	Thunderavg 51¢	$178.5	$176.75	-$1.75	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Thunderavg 49¢	$50.79	$53.29	+$2.5	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Thunderavg 51¢	$39.85	$39.46	-$0.39	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Thunderavg 49¢	$33.81	$35.54	+$1.73	44% 337-422 (759)
PA Pan9X<$100	Thunderavg 51¢	$38.77	$28.74	-$0.24	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
LI Limousin<$100	Thunderavg 49¢	$15.19	$15.97	+$0.78	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Kingsavg 48¢	$9.6	$9.6	+$0	56% 665-530 (1195)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Kingsavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.93	+$0.01	53% 1889-1648 (3537)

nehcnehcCTR

Kings

Invested

$657.53

Value

$664.24

PnL

+$6.71

Record

36%

63-110 (173)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$342.94

Value

$346.91

PnL

+$3.97

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Both legs:

Kings$220.5448.4¢+$5.17

Thunder$122.451¢-$1.2

GC-P

Thunder

Invested

$178.5

Value

$176.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

NM-P

Thunder

Invested

$178.5

Value

$176.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Thunder

Invested

$50.79

Value

$53.29

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

SnakeBall<$100

Thunder

Invested

$39.85

Value

$39.46

PnL

-$0.39

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

Forecastication2<$100

Thunder

Invested

$33.81

Value

$35.54

PnL

+$1.73

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

Pan9X<$100

Thunder

Invested

$38.77

Value

$28.74

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

Limousin<$100

Thunder

Invested

$15.19

Value

$15.97

PnL

+$0.78

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.