Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (79%). 7 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 22¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$439.17

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 21.5¢

-57% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 79%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,763

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,985

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 48.1¢	$1.5K	$2.4K	+$912.27	52% 2592-2431 (5023)
KA KasonWongCTR	Overavg 52¢	$2.6K	$1.7K	-$892.48	25% 8-24 (32)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 45.8¢	$397.68	$672.66	+$274.98	32% 444-952 (1396)
latvian.demon	Underavg 54¢	$405	$585	+$180	6% 28-440 (468)
RN1	Underavg 59.2¢	$506	$533.37	+$59.37	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Overavg 42.6¢	$216.37	$294.56	+$78.19	49% 497-523 (1020)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 47.2¢	$289.18	$208.11	-$81.07	46% 200-233 (433)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Underavg 48¢	$100	$161.46	+$61.46	48% 74-80 (154)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 35.1¢	$193.47	$113.12	-$80.35	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 58¢	$183.75	$108.43	-$75.32	55% 843-701 (1544)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 57.3¢	$410.26	$60.03	-$8.7	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 51¢	$44.88	$58.08	+$13.2	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 46.6¢	$66.03	$18.57	-$3.63	49% 786-829 (1615)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$1.65	$2.9	+$1.25	55% 729-596 (1325)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$1,495.76

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$912.27

Record

52%

2592-2431 (5023)

KasonWongCTR

Over

Invested

$2,578.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$892.48

Record

25%

8-24 (32)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$397.68

Value

$672.66

PnL

+$274.98

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$405

Value

$585

PnL

+$180

Record

28-440 (468)

RN1

Under

Invested

$506

Value

$533.37

PnL

+$59.37

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Over

Invested

$216.37

Value

$294.56

PnL

+$78.19

Record

49%

497-523 (1020)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$289.18

Value

$208.11

PnL

-$81.07

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$161.46

PnL

+$61.46

Record

48%

74-80 (154)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$193.47

Value

$113.12

PnL

-$80.35

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$183.75

Value

$108.43

PnL

-$75.32

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$410.26

Value

$60.03

PnL

-$8.7

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$44.88

Value

$58.08

PnL

+$13.2

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.03

Value

$18.57

PnL

-$3.63

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.65

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$1.25

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 79%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.