Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$1.2K
$4.79
53¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Underavg 53¢ | $862.6 | $870.74 | +$8.14 | 63% 1096-651 (1747) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $117.5 | $116.25 | -$1.25 | 51% 446-422 (868) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $108.57 | $107.42 | -$1.15 | 51% 1833-1787 (3620) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 46.8¢ | $84.65 | $84.11 | -$0.53 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 47.7¢ | $17.64 | $17.2 | -$0.43 | 48% 662-711 (1373) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $11.45 | $11.33 | -$0.12 | 54% 565-475 (1040) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $7.79 | $7.94 | +$0.15 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
Invested
$862.6
Value
$870.74
PnL
+$8.14
Record
63%
1096-651 (1747)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$117.5
Value
$116.25
PnL
-$1.25
Record
51%
446-422 (868)
Invested
$108.57
Value
$107.42
PnL
-$1.15
Record
51%
1833-1787 (3620)
Invested
$84.65
Value
$84.11
PnL
-$0.53
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
Invested
$17.64
Value
$17.2
PnL
-$0.43
Record
48%
662-711 (1373)
Invested
$11.45
Value
$11.33
PnL
-$0.12
Record
54%
565-475 (1040)
Invested
$7.79
Value
$7.94
PnL
+$0.15
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.