Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 49¢ · $783 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$782.86
$25.46
48.3¢ → 48.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A6 0xa6de...256cCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $414.79 | $436.39 | +$21.6 | — |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $163.52 | $168.4 | +$4.88 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 52¢ | $122.96 | $121.78 | -$1.18 | 53% 1830-1635 (3465) |
 nehcnehc<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $28.65 | $28.36 | -$0.29 | 25% 21-63 (84) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $17.77 | $18.31 | +$0.54 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $9.72 | $9.62 | -$0.1 | 30% 384-878 (1262) |
Invested
$414.79
Value
$436.39
PnL
+$21.6
Record
—
Invested
$163.52
Value
$168.4
PnL
+$4.88
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$122.96
Value
$121.78
PnL
-$1.18
Record
53%
1830-1635 (3465)
nehcnehc<$100Invested
$28.65
Value
$28.36
PnL
-$0.29
Record
25%
21-63 (84)
Invested
$17.77
Value
$18.31
PnL
+$0.54
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$9.62
PnL
-$0.1
Record
30%
384-878 (1262)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.