Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (50%) · Thunder at 92¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Trail Blazers8¢Thunder92¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 50%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$55.02

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 92.1¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers8%

Thunder92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder6 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,614

Combined PnL+$530.23

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$160.04

Total Shares2,950

Combined PnL-$475.21

Thunder — 50%Trail Blazers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 81.2¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$296.89	54% 930-784 (1714)
65 6512395314597884	Thunderavg 69.7¢	$712.92	$868.99	+$156.07	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
PA Pan9X	Thunderavg 70.2¢	$156.6	$156.1	-$0.5	47% 847-942 (1789)
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 70¢	$423.02	$116.57	+$76.05	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
RN1	Thunderavg 65¢	$104.7	$103.01	-$1.69	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Trail Blazersavg 20¢	$240	$67.8	-$172.2	53% 356-319 (675)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 18¢	$180	$50	-$130	40% 259-395 (654)
LI LimousinCTR	Trail Blazersavg 27.2¢	$140.29	$29.17	-$111.12	32% 480-1013 (1493)
TA takeormake<$100	Thunderavg 79¢	$17.38	$20.78	+$3.4	58% 3259-2339 (5598)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 33¢	$66	$11.3	-$54.7	32% 484-1020 (1504)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 21¢	$4.2	$1	-$3.2	63% 310-179 (489)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 35¢	$4.76	$0.77	-$3.99	47% 1377-1532 (2909)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$1,828.51

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$296.89

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

6512395314597884

Thunder

Invested

$712.92

Value

$868.99

PnL

+$156.07

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

Pan9X

Thunder

Invested

$156.6

Value

$156.1

PnL

-$0.5

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$423.02

Value

$116.57

PnL

+$76.05

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

RN1

Thunder

Invested

$104.7

Value

$103.01

PnL

-$1.69

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$240

Value

$67.8

PnL

-$172.2

Record

53%

356-319 (675)

justaluckydudeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$180

Value

$50

PnL

-$130

Record

40%

259-395 (654)

LimousinCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$140.29

Value

$29.17

PnL

-$111.12

Record

32%

480-1013 (1493)

takeormake<$100

Thunder

Invested

$17.38

Value

$20.78

PnL

+$3.4

Record

58%

3259-2339 (5598)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$66

Value

$11.3

PnL

-$54.7

Record

32%

484-1020 (1504)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4.2

Value

PnL

-$3.2

Record

63%

310-179 (489)

suntoriCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4.76

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$3.99

Record

47%

1377-1532 (2909)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.4%

92.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.