Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (33%) · Thunder at 60¢ · $430 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
6
Thunder 33%
$430.2
$7.9
64¢ → 60¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Thunderavg 64¢ | $222.08 | $208.2 | -$13.88 | 48% 1401-1536 (2937) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Trail Blazersavg 36¢ | $148.41 | $164.9 | +$16.49 | 31% 389-859 (1248) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 34¢ | $28.9 | $32.3 | +$3.4 | 45% 267-323 (590) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 35¢ | $10.75 | $12.29 | +$1.54 | 51% 1861-1809 (3670) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 38¢ | $7.98 | $8.4 | +$0.42 | 30% 385-880 (1265) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Thunderavg 65¢ | $4.18 | $4.11 | -$0.06 | 49% 678-717 (1395) |
Invested
$222.08
Value
$208.2
PnL
-$13.88
Record
48%
1401-1536 (2937)
Invested
$148.41
Value
$164.9
PnL
+$16.49
Record
31%
389-859 (1248)
Invested
$28.9
Value
$32.3
PnL
+$3.4
Record
45%
267-323 (590)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$12.29
PnL
+$1.54
Record
51%
1861-1809 (3670)
Invested
$7.98
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$0.42
Record
30%
385-880 (1265)
Invested
$4.18
Value
$4.11
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
678-717 (1395)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.