Spread: Thunder (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (57%) · Thunder at 51¢ · $284 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
7
Thunder 57%
$283.78
$21.58
48¢ → 50.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Thunderavg 48¢ | $138.72 | $153.17 | +$14.45 | 70% 1671-716 (2387) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Thunderavg 48¢ | $32.95 | $36.38 | +$3.43 | 30% 373-861 (1234) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 46.5¢ | $32.65 | $33.03 | +$0.38 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Thunderavg 48¢ | $18.21 | $20.11 | +$1.9 | 50% 3287-3240 (6527) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 47¢ | $17.38 | $17.38 | -$0 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Thunderavg 48¢ | $12.72 | $14.05 | +$1.32 | 30% 369-862 (1231) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 49¢ | $9.56 | $9.66 | +$0.1 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
Invested
$138.72
Value
$153.17
PnL
+$14.45
Record
70%
1671-716 (2387)
Invested
$32.95
Value
$36.38
PnL
+$3.43
Record
30%
373-861 (1234)
Invested
$32.65
Value
$33.03
PnL
+$0.38
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$18.21
Value
$20.11
PnL
+$1.9
Record
50%
3287-3240 (6527)
Invested
$17.38
Value
$17.38
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
Invested
$12.72
Value
$14.05
PnL
+$1.32
Record
30%
369-862 (1231)
Invested
$9.56
Value
$9.66
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.