Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (63%) · Trail Blazers at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Thunder1¢Trail Blazers99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 63%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$50.43

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 98.7¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder1%

Trail Blazers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,240

Combined PnL+$163.94

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$46.77

Total Shares2,671

Combined PnL-$214.37

Trail Blazers — 63%Thunder — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 93.1¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$56.86	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 87.5¢	$468.31	$513.78	+$45.47	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 82.5¢	$244.86	$288.07	+$43.21	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
PA Pan9X	Trail Blazersavg 91.3¢	$286.21	$262.58	+$15.37	49% 786-829 (1615)
AN Anon455<$100	Trail Blazersavg 81¢	$40.8	$43.82	+$3.02	46% 200-233 (433)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Thunderavg 10.4¢	$238.63	$40.05	-$198.58	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 5.9¢	$22.47	$6.68	-$15.79	49% 973-998 (1971)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Thunderavg 4¢	$0.04	$0.04	+$0	40% 438-657 (1095)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,946.52

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$56.86

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$468.31

Value

$513.78

PnL

+$45.47

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$244.86

Value

$288.07

PnL

+$43.21

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Pan9X

Trail Blazers

Invested

$286.21

Value

$262.58

PnL

+$15.37

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Anon455<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$40.8

Value

$43.82

PnL

+$3.02

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

FlaznorpCTR

Thunder

Invested

$238.63

Value

$40.05

PnL

-$198.58

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$22.47

Value

$6.68

PnL

-$15.79

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

sentrioCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.