Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Thunder (51%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (43%) · Trail Blazers at 49¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
7
Trail Blazers 43%
$3.5K
$27.63
45¢ → 49¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI Siddhartha1CTR | Trail Blazersavg 45¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$30.01 | 61% 92-60 (152) |
 VeryLucky888 | Thunderavg 55.7¢ | $327.02 | $319.96 | -$7.06 | 51% 330-319 (649) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Thunderavg 56¢ | $272.87 | $275.31 | +$2.44 | 57% 3075-2312 (5387) |
FL Flaznorp | Thunderavg 56.4¢ | $99.91 | $103.59 | +$3.68 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 43¢ | $47.93 | $46.26 | -$1.67 | 54% 1662-1438 (3100) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Thunderavg 55¢ | $28.22 | $28.99 | +$0.77 | 16% 68-351 (419) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 44¢ | $17.15 | $16.62 | -$0.53 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
Invested
$2,700.8
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$30.01
Record
61%
92-60 (152)
VeryLucky888Invested
$327.02
Value
$319.96
PnL
-$7.06
Record
51%
330-319 (649)
Invested
$272.87
Value
$275.31
PnL
+$2.44
Record
57%
3075-2312 (5387)
Invested
$99.91
Value
$103.59
PnL
+$3.68
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$47.93
Value
$46.26
PnL
-$1.67
Record
54%
1662-1438 (3100)
Invested
$28.22
Value
$28.99
PnL
+$0.77
Record
16%
68-351 (419)
Invested
$17.15
Value
$16.62
PnL
-$0.53
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.