Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (67%) · Trail Blazers at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
6
Trail Blazers 67%
$3.4K
$124.76
69¢ → 73¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Trail Blazersavg 69¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$72.97 | 11% 24-188 (212) |
FL Flaznorp | Trail Blazersavg 68.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$68.63 | 50% 1393-1407 (2800) |
38 38791873984189 | Trail Blazersavg 69.7¢ | $498.03 | $304.9 | +$15.93 | 48% 802-884 (1686) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Thunderavg 30.1¢ | $300.98 | $270 | -$30.98 | 47% 66-75 (141) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 70¢ | $58.53 | $59.18 | +$0.64 | 48% 414-448 (862) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Thunderavg 29¢ | $35.38 | $32.94 | -$2.44 | 69% 2572-1165 (3737) |
Invested
$1,438.65
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$72.97
Record
11%
24-188 (212)
Invested
$1,132.94
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$68.63
Record
50%
1393-1407 (2800)
Invested
$498.03
Value
$304.9
PnL
+$15.93
Record
48%
802-884 (1686)
Invested
$300.98
Value
$270
PnL
-$30.98
Record
47%
66-75 (141)
Invested
$58.53
Value
$59.18
PnL
+$0.64
Record
48%
414-448 (862)
Invested
$35.38
Value
$32.94
PnL
-$2.44
Record
69%
2572-1165 (3737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.