Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 63¢ · $46 held · ended Nov 14

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$45.54

Combined PnL

$4.29

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$38.58

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$4.45

Over2 traders

Total Value$6.96

Total Shares19

Combined PnL-$0.16

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 51¢	$18.73	$22.96	+$4.22	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 61.7¢	$12.35	$12.5	+$0.15	51% 499-470 (969)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$5.7	$5.63	-$0.08	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.13	+$0.08	70% 1714-741 (2455)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$1.42	$1.33	-$0.09	46% 2359-2814 (5173)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$18.73

Value

$22.96

PnL

+$4.22

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$12.35

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.08

Record

70%

1714-741 (2455)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.09

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.