Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (61%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 39¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 67%
$1.1K
-$8.16
49.3¢ → 39¢
-21% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 39%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $488.84 | $498.51 | +$9.67 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 50¢ | $404.28 | $398.91 | +$0.53 | 53% 1186-1032 (2218) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $85.49 | $89.05 | +$3.56 | 37% 926-1560 (2486) |
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 50¢ | $100 | $78 | -$22 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 50.3¢ | $26.66 | $26.48 | -$0.18 | 46% 2359-2814 (5173) |
 Stickman22CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $13.53 | $14.1 | +$0.56 | 57% 12-9 (21) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $9.6 | $10 | +$0.4 | 55% 441-368 (809) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $9.9 | $10 | +$0.1 | 40% 614-914 (1528) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $5.8 | $5 | -$0.8 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
Invested
$488.84
Value
$498.51
PnL
+$9.67
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$404.28
Value
$398.91
PnL
+$0.53
Record
53%
1186-1032 (2218)
Invested
$85.49
Value
$89.05
PnL
+$3.56
Record
37%
926-1560 (2486)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$100
Value
$78
PnL
-$22
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$26.66
Value
$26.48
PnL
-$0.18
Record
46%
2359-2814 (5173)
Stickman22CTR<$100Invested
$13.53
Value
$14.1
PnL
+$0.56
Record
57%
12-9 (21)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$9.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.4
Record
55%
441-368 (809)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.1
Record
40%
614-914 (1528)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.8
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.