Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (73%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 215.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 27¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 57%
$1.2K
-$9.9
63¢ → 27¢
-57% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 26.6¢ | $285.13 | $492.92 | +$207.79 | 49% 3587-3673 (7260) |
 fxwd12345CTR | Overavg 80¢ | $443.96 | $337.83 | -$101.37 | 73% 44-16 (60) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $148.97 | $120.38 | -$28.59 | 57% 3443-2562 (6005) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375 | Underavg 47.3¢ | $131.84 | $104.53 | -$27.32 | 51% 487-460 (947) |
 RN1 | Underavg 54¢ | $130.68 | $90.75 | -$39.93 | 56% 5116-4067 (9183) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $111.32 | $90.75 | -$20.57 | 51% 2392-2332 (4724) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $1.44 | $1.52 | +$0.09 | 33% 146-291 (437) |
Invested
$285.13
Value
$492.92
PnL
+$207.79
Record
49%
3587-3673 (7260)
fxwd12345CTRInvested
$443.96
Value
$337.83
PnL
-$101.37
Record
73%
44-16 (60)
Invested
$148.97
Value
$120.38
PnL
-$28.59
Record
57%
3443-2562 (6005)
Invested
$131.84
Value
$104.53
PnL
-$27.32
Record
51%
487-460 (947)
RN1Invested
$130.68
Value
$90.75
PnL
-$39.93
Record
56%
5116-4067 (9183)
Invested
$111.32
Value
$90.75
PnL
-$20.57
Record
51%
2392-2332 (4724)
Invested
$1.44
Value
$1.52
PnL
+$0.09
Record
33%
146-291 (437)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.