Thunder vs. Rockets
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (50%) · Rockets at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
4
Rockets 50%
2 arb excluded
$1.3K
$1.67
55.7¢ → 59.5¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Rocketsavg 56.5¢ | $535.23 | $530.32 | -$4.91 | 50% 5846-5946 (11792) |
 StreamLIVECTR | Thunderavg 44¢ | $264 | $264 | -$0 | 55% 1246-1015 (2261) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Thunderavg 43¢ | $250.99 | $252.39 | +$1.39 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
| └ Thunder leg | Thunderavg 43¢ | $158.23 | $161.91 | +$3.68 | |
| └ Rockets leg | Rocketsavg 57.4¢ | $92.76 | $90.48 | -$2.29 | |
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Rocketsavg 56.3¢ | $162.67 | $167.31 | +$4.64 | 38% 383-624 (1007) |
| └ Rockets leg | Rocketsavg 56.3¢ | $126.6 | $131.57 | +$4.97 | |
| └ Thunder leg | Thunderavg 44.9¢ | $38.72 | $35.75 | -$0.33 | |
BU BullishBarb<$100 | Rocketsavg 51¢ | $80.07 | $87.14 | +$7.07 | 43% 3555-4792 (8347) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Thunderavg 42.6¢ | $9.66 | $9.17 | -$0.48 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
Invested
$535.23
Value
$530.32
PnL
-$4.91
Record
50%
5846-5946 (11792)
StreamLIVECTRInvested
$264
Value
$264
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
1246-1015 (2261)
Invested
$250.99
Value
$252.39
PnL
+$1.39
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Both legs:
Invested
$162.67
Value
$167.31
PnL
+$4.64
Record
38%
383-624 (1007)
Both legs:
Invested
$80.07
Value
$87.14
PnL
+$7.07
Record
43%
3555-4792 (8347)
Invested
$9.66
Value
$9.17
PnL
-$0.48
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.