Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 216.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$6.3

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,570

Combined PnL+$15.91

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,239

Combined PnL-$22.21

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 52¢	$852.28	$861.36	+$9.08	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 48¢	$583.3	$577.22	-$6.08	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 48¢	$346.89	$332.44	-$14.45	26% 250-698 (948)
GC GC-P	Overavg 52¢	$182	$183.75	+$1.75	43% 577-770 (1347)
NM NM-P	Overavg 52¢	$182	$183.75	+$1.75	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$124.08	$122.87	-$1.21	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 51¢	$100.89	$103.86	+$2.97	48% 134-144 (278)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 52¢	$38.22	$38.59	+$0.37	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 47.4¢	$17.52	$17.02	-$0.5	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.37	+$0.02	43% 875-1153 (2028)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$852.28

Value

$861.36

PnL

+$9.08

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$583.3

Value

$577.22

PnL

-$6.08

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$346.89

Value

$332.44

PnL

-$14.45

Record

26%

250-698 (948)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$182

Value

$183.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$182

Value

$183.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$124.08

Value

$122.87

PnL

-$1.21

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$100.89

Value

$103.86

PnL

+$2.97

Record

48%

134-144 (278)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$38.22

Value

$38.59

PnL

+$0.37

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.52

Value

$17.02

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.02

Record

43%

875-1153 (2028)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.