Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (80%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 214.5
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 20¢ · $265 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
9
Over 22%
$265.43
$2.43
51.2¢ → 20¢
-61% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Under 80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 57¢ | $151.57 | $150.29 | -$1.28 | 56% 3959-3128 (7087) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $40 | $42 | +$2 | 48% 4844-5167 (10011) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $28.12 | $29.39 | +$1.28 | 54% 6165-5274 (11439) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 40.7¢ | $15.05 | $15.17 | +$0.12 | 50% 2305-2302 (4607) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $13.2 | $13.53 | +$0.33 | 48% 4150-4555 (8705) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $10.9 | +$0.1 | 49% 2930-3029 (5959) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.05 | -$0.1 | 43% 878-1159 (2037) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $1.28 | $1.28 | -$0 | 46% 1257-1451 (2708) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $0.84 | $0.82 | -$0.02 | 56% 710-561 (1271) |
Invested
$151.57
Value
$150.29
PnL
-$1.28
Record
56%
3959-3128 (7087)
Invested
$40
Value
$42
PnL
+$2
Record
48%
4844-5167 (10011)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$28.12
Value
$29.39
PnL
+$1.28
Record
54%
6165-5274 (11439)
Invested
$15.05
Value
$15.17
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
2305-2302 (4607)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$13.53
PnL
+$0.33
Record
48%
4150-4555 (8705)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$10.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
2930-3029 (5959)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$0.1
Record
43%
878-1159 (2037)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.28
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
1257-1451 (2708)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$0.84
Value
$0.82
PnL
-$0.02
Record
56%
710-561 (1271)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.