Spread: Raptors (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (67%) · Knicks at 77¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 15

Raptors23¢Knicks77¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 77¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Raptors23%

Knicks77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks6 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares26,117

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$134.19

Total Shares378

Combined PnL-$44.34

Knicks — 67%Raptors — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Knicksavg 52¢	$13.1K	$15.3K	+$2.3K	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
JU justaluckydude	Knicksavg 53.4¢	$212.02	$305.69	+$93.67	50% 714-704 (1418)
RN1	Knicksavg 52¢	$130	$161.25	+$31.25	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
65 6512395314597884	Knicksavg 52¢	$104	$129	+$25	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
38 38791873984189CTR	Raptorsavg 47.4¢	$134.18	$100.46	-$33.72	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Raptorsavg 46¢	$101.85	$92.72	-$9.12	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 46¢	$77.45	$65.67	-$11.79
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 55¢	$24.4	$27.06	+$2.66
TA takeormake<$100	Knicksavg 52¢	$54.08	$80.08	+$26	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
MI micky456<$100	Knicksavg 52¢	$22.36	$33.11	+$10.75	48% 654-715 (1369)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 47.3¢	$42.6	$31.95	-$10.65	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.78	+$0.02	38% 1445-2329 (3774)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Knicks

Invested

$13,074.25

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

justaluckydude

Knicks

Invested

$212.02

Value

$305.69

PnL

+$93.67

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

RN1

Knicks

Invested

$130

Value

$161.25

PnL

+$31.25

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

6512395314597884

Knicks

Invested

$104

Value

$129

PnL

+$25

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

38791873984189CTR

Raptors

Invested

$134.18

Value

$100.46

PnL

-$33.72

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$101.85

Value

$92.72

PnL

-$9.12

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Both legs:

Raptors$77.4546¢-$11.79

Knicks$24.455¢+$2.66

takeormake<$100

Knicks

Invested

$54.08

Value

$80.08

PnL

+$26

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

micky456<$100

Knicks

Invested

$22.36

Value

$33.11

PnL

+$10.75

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$42.6

Value

$31.95

PnL

-$10.65

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.