Spread: Knicks (-6.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (45%) · Raptors at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Knicks43¢Raptors57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$51.59

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 57.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks43%

Raptors57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,180

Combined PnL+$48.14

Knicks6 traders

Total Value$568.08

Total Shares1,286

Combined PnL+$3.45

Raptors — 45%Knicks — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Raptorsavg 57.1¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$37.99	50% 760-746 (1506)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Knicksavg 44.1¢	$520.05	$527.92	+$7.86	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 44.1¢	$334.55	$330.17	-$4.39
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 53¢	$185.5	$197.75	+$12.25
HO HomeRunHazard	Raptorsavg 57¢	$441.71	$437.84	-$3.87	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
VeryLucky888	Raptorsavg 54¢	$752.83	$369.12	+$14.3	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Raptorsavg 53¢	$332.5	$350	+$17.5	43% 577-770 (1347)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 53¢	$185.5	$197.75	+$12.25
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 42¢	$147	$152.25	+$5.25
LI LightParadoxCTR	Knicksavg 45¢	$220.16	$220.16	+$0	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 53¢	$190.58	$192.65	+$2.07	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 53¢	$98.58	$97.65	-$0.93
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 46¢	$92	$95	+$3
FL FlaznorpCTR	Knicksavg 42¢	$141.54	$139.86	-$1.68	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Knicksavg 44¢	$98.56	$99.68	+$1.12	56% 693-539 (1232)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Knicksavg 43.2¢	$94.51	$98.41	+$3.9	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Raptorsavg 56¢	$34.72	$34.41	-$0.31	47% 676-773 (1449)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Knicksavg 46¢	$24.67	$5.83	+$0.16	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Knicksavg 42¢	$4.2	$4.15	-$0.05	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Raptorsavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.68	+$0.03	43% 875-1153 (2028)

nigiri99

Raptors

Invested

$1,556.93

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$37.99

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

NM-PARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$520.05

Value

$527.92

PnL

+$7.86

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

Both legs:

Knicks$334.5544.1¢-$4.39

Raptors$185.553¢+$12.25

HomeRunHazard

Raptors

Invested

$441.71

Value

$437.84

PnL

-$3.87

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

VeryLucky888

Raptors

Invested

$752.83

Value

$369.12

PnL

+$14.3

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

GC-PARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$332.5

Value

$350

PnL

+$17.5

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

Both legs:

Raptors$185.553¢+$12.25

Knicks$14742¢+$5.25

LightParadoxCTR

Knicks

Invested

$220.16

Value

$220.16

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$190.58

Value

$192.65

PnL

+$2.07

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Both legs:

Raptors$98.5853¢-$0.93

Knicks$9246¢+$3

FlaznorpCTR

Knicks

Invested

$141.54

Value

$139.86

PnL

-$1.68

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$98.56

Value

$99.68

PnL

+$1.12

Record

56%

693-539 (1232)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$94.51

Value

$98.41

PnL

+$3.9

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Raptors

Invested

$34.72

Value

$34.41

PnL

-$0.31

Record

47%

676-773 (1449)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$24.67

Value

$5.83

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

ameisgoat11<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

43%

875-1153 (2028)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.