Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Knicks (51%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (38%) · Raptors at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Knicks51¢Raptors49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$16.77

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks51%

Raptors50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,048

Combined PnL-$24.62

Knicks5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,795

Combined PnL+$41.39

Raptors — 38%Knicks — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-86 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKnicks 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Raptorsavg 50¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$24.35	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
nehcnehc	Knicksavg 50¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$21.6	36% 63-110 (173)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50.5¢	$535.5	$539.28	+$3.79	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.5¢	$353.5	$350	-$3.5
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 48.1¢	$182	$189.28	+$7.29
GC GC-PARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50.5¢	$521.5	$525	+$3.5	42% 548-747 (1295)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.5¢	$353.5	$350	-$3.5
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 48¢	$168	$175	+$7
SU suntori	Knicksavg 49.8¢	$125.7	$126.32	+$0.62	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50¢	$123.04	$125.48	+$2.44	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50¢	$64	$63.36	-$0.64
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 48¢	$59.04	$62.12	+$3.08
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 50¢	$70.74	$70.03	-$0.71	41% 1175-1673 (2848)
VeryLucky888	Knicksavg 48.5¢	$534.1	$51.65	+$17.56	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Knicksavg 49¢	$39.8	$40.61	+$0.81	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 50¢	$30.5	$30.94	+$0.44	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
0xheavy888<$100	Knicksavg 48¢	$19.2	$20	+$0.8	56% 665-530 (1195)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Raptors

Invested

$2,435

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$24.35

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

nehcnehc

Knicks

Invested

$2,159.63

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$21.6

Record

36%

63-110 (173)

NM-PARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$535.5

Value

$539.28

PnL

+$3.79

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

Both legs:

Raptors$353.550.5¢-$3.5

Knicks$18248.1¢+$7.29

GC-PARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$521.5

Value

$525

PnL

+$3.5

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

Both legs:

Raptors$353.550.5¢-$3.5

Knicks$16848¢+$7

suntori

Knicks

Invested

$125.7

Value

$126.32

PnL

+$0.62

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$123.04

Value

$125.48

PnL

+$2.44

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Both legs:

Raptors$6450¢-$0.64

Knicks$59.0448¢+$3.08

sentrioCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$70.74

Value

$70.03

PnL

-$0.71

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

VeryLucky888

Knicks

Invested

$534.1

Value

$51.65

PnL

+$17.56

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

SnakeBall<$100

Knicks

Invested

$39.8

Value

$40.61

PnL

+$0.81

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$30.5

Value

$30.94

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

0xheavy888<$100

Knicks

Invested

$19.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.8

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-86 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKnicks 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.