Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (43%) · Knicks at 52¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Knicks52¢Raptors48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 43%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$160.4

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 51.5¢

-10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks52%

Raptors49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors8 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares9,534

Combined PnL-$140.19

Knicks6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,272

Combined PnL-$20.21

Raptors — 57%Knicks — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinCTR	Raptorsavg 45¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$124.1	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
HO HomeRunHazard	Knicksavg 57¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$0	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
HI hi774c	Knicksavg 57¢	$706	$706	+$0	26% 250-698 (948)
VeryLucky888	Knicksavg 58¢	$603.75	$570	-$9.59	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
AN Anon455	Knicksavg 57¢	$570	$570	+$0	49% 497-511 (1008)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Raptorsavg 44.9¢	$402.11	$389.8	-$12.31	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
38 38791873984189	Knicksavg 57¢	$115.47	$104.85	-$10.62	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 45¢	$80.73	$78.04	-$2.69	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 43¢	$25.37	$25.37	+$0	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 45¢	$18.68	$18.06	-$0.62	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 44¢	$16.15	$15.97	-$0.18	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 44.2¢	$15.68	$15.27	-$0.41	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
PA Pan9X<$100	Knicksavg 57¢	$14.25	$14.25	+$0	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 42¢	$5.33	$5.46	+$0.13	46% 1234-1428 (2662)

LimousinCTR

Raptors

Invested

$3,723.07

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$124.1

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

HomeRunHazard

Knicks

Invested

$2,743.95

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

hi774c

Knicks

Invested

$706

Value

$706

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

250-698 (948)

VeryLucky888

Knicks

Invested

$603.75

Value

$570

PnL

-$9.59

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

Anon455

Knicks

Invested

$570

Value

$570

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

FlaznorpCTR

Raptors

Invested

$402.11

Value

$389.8

PnL

-$12.31

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

38791873984189

Knicks

Invested

$115.47

Value

$104.85

PnL

-$10.62

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$80.73

Value

$78.04

PnL

-$2.69

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$25.37

Value

$25.37

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

VenusianCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$18.68

Value

$18.06

PnL

-$0.62

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$16.15

Value

$15.97

PnL

-$0.18

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

sentrioCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$15.68

Value

$15.27

PnL

-$0.41

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

Pan9X<$100

Knicks

Invested

$14.25

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$0.13

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.