Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Knicks (78%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Knicks (-1.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (80%) · Raptors at 23¢ · $512 held · ended Nov 15

Knicks78¢Raptors22¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 80%

Total Value

$512.24

Combined PnL

$49.02

Smart Money Entry

41.4¢ → 22.5¢

-46% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 78%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Knicks78%

Raptors23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors8 traders

Total Value$332.4

Total Shares683

Combined PnL+$43.92

Knicks2 traders

Total Value$179.84

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$5.1

Raptors — 80%Knicks — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Raptorsavg 40.1¢	$174.04	$208.44	+$34.4	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
HI hi774c	Knicksavg 58¢	$159.14	$164.63	+$5.49	26% 255-710 (965)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 41¢	$45.62	$45.78	+$0.16	46% 1257-1451 (2708)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 40¢	$25.73	$34.41	+$8.68	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 52.7¢	$29.79	$30.23	+$0.44	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
PA Pan9X<$100	Knicksavg 60¢	$15.6	$15.21	-$0.39	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 42¢	$6.6	$6.68	+$0.08	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 52¢	$4.16	$4.16	+$0	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 37¢	$1.85	$2	+$0.15	69% 1751-790 (2541)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 41¢	$0.69	$0.7	+$0.01	48% 653-716 (1369)

FlaznorpCTR

Raptors

Invested

$174.04

Value

$208.44

PnL

+$34.4

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

hi774c

Knicks

Invested

$159.14

Value

$164.63

PnL

+$5.49

Record

26%

255-710 (965)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$45.62

Value

$45.78

PnL

+$0.16

Record

46%

1257-1451 (2708)

VenusianCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$25.73

Value

$34.41

PnL

+$8.68

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$29.79

Value

$30.23

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Pan9X<$100

Knicks

Invested

$15.6

Value

$15.21

PnL

-$0.39

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$4.16

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

69%

1751-790 (2541)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

653-716 (1369)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 78%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.