Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Knicks (67%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Knicks vs. Raptors

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (60%) · Raptors at 34¢ · $308 held · ends Nov 15

Knicks67¢Raptors33¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 60%

Total Value

$307.92

Combined PnL

$2.25

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 33.5¢

-9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks67%

Raptors34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks4 traders

Total Value$185.43

Total Shares275

Combined PnL-$0.44

Raptors6 traders

Total Value$122.49

Total Shares278

Combined PnL+$2.7

Knicks — 40%Raptors — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima<$100	Knicksavg 65.5¢	$73.37	$73.47	+$0.1	49% 300-314 (614)
PU purplegatto<$100	Knicksavg 66.4¢	$72.42	$72.49	+$0.07	68% 2651-1237 (3888)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 37.1¢	$45.78	$43.23	-$2.54	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
SU suntori<$100	Knicksavg 60.5¢	$37.14	$36.5	-$0.64	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 39.8¢	$31.12	$31.24	+$0.12	33% 109-217 (326)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 38¢	$22.21	$23.07	+$0.86	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
fyrskenCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 32¢	$16	$20.13	+$4.13	50% 58-59 (117)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 39¢	$3.7	$3.82	+$0.12	49% 24-25 (49)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Knicksavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.97	+$0.02	45% 277-332 (609)
funnydayCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 33¢	$0.99	$1	+$0.01	23% 7-24 (31)

Gaditima<$100

Knicks

Invested

$73.37

Value

$73.47

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

300-314 (614)

purplegatto<$100

Knicks

Invested

$72.42

Value

$72.49

PnL

+$0.07

Record

68%

2651-1237 (3888)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$45.78

Value

$43.23

PnL

-$2.54

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

suntori<$100

Knicks

Invested

$37.14

Value

$36.5

PnL

-$0.64

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

OddstormCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$31.12

Value

$31.24

PnL

+$0.12

Record

33%

109-217 (326)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$22.21

Value

$23.07

PnL

+$0.86

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

fyrskenCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$16

Value

$20.13

PnL

+$4.13

Record

50%

58-59 (117)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

24-25 (49)

Forecastication2<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.02

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

funnydayCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$0.99

Value

PnL

+$0.01

Record

23%

7-24 (31)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.