Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 220.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 53¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$54.56

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 52.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,689

Combined PnL-$110.47

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,915

Combined PnL+$55.9

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54.7¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$78.23	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$51.57	45% 214-259 (473)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 45.3¢	$816.7	$826.58	+$9.88	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.3¢	$475.99	$498.74	+$22.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.6¢	$340.71	$327.84	-$12.87
HI hi774c	Underavg 55¢	$785	$756.45	-$28.55	21% 156-572 (728)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$608.99	$608.12	-$0.88	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$321.99	$332.49	+$10.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.7¢	$287	$275.62	-$11.37
IC ic4cream	Underavg 53¢	$440.96	$440.96	+$0	5% 24-459 (483)
SE sentrio	Underavg 54¢	$186.56	$184.6	-$1.97	43% 808-1065 (1873)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 45.6¢	$123.79	$127.62	+$3.83	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 55¢	$47.61	$45.88	-$1.73	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 46.2¢	$33.7	$34.1	+$0.4	53% 388-339 (727)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 53¢	$15.16	$15.16	+$0	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$4.65	$4.7	+$0.05	40% 584-893 (1477)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.35	+$0.05	49% 1668-1706 (3374)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,124.43

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$78.23

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$1,160.33

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$51.57

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$816.7

Value

$826.58

PnL

+$9.88

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Over$475.9945.3¢+$22.75

Under$340.7154.6¢-$12.87

hi774c

Under

Invested

$785

Value

$756.45

PnL

-$28.55

Record

21%

156-572 (728)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$608.99

Value

$608.12

PnL

-$0.88

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Over$321.9946¢+$10.5

Under$28754.7¢-$11.37

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$440.96

Value

$440.96

PnL

+$0

Record

24-459 (483)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$186.56

Value

$184.6

PnL

-$1.97

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$123.79

Value

$127.62

PnL

+$3.83

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$47.61

Value

$45.88

PnL

-$1.73

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.7

Value

$34.1

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$15.16

Value

$15.16

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.