Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Knicks (65%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Knicks vs. Cavaliers

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (75%) · Cavaliers at 36¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8

Knicks65¢Cavaliers35¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$200.58

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 35.5¢

-16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Knicks65%

Cavaliers36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,105

Combined PnL+$46.73

Cavaliers6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares5,223

Combined PnL-$247.31

Knicks — 25%Cavaliers — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AP AppleTiiime	Knicksavg 60¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$46.35	55% 70-58 (128)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Cavaliersavg 43.2¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$211.18	51% 4834-4701 (9535)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$386.11	$316.21	-$30.25	48% 62067-66946 (129013)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 38.3¢	$199.98	$141.7	+$5.16	48% 7431-7968 (15399)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 38.3¢	$93.66	$86.89	+$8.11
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 64¢	$54.37	$54.82	-$2.95
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 36.7¢	$93.47	$91.9	-$1.57	54% 18314-15419 (33733)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 36.7¢	$59.78	$57.85	-$1.93
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 63.8¢	$33.69	$34.05	+$0.36
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 40.9¢	$65.78	$61.48	-$2.45	54% 10172-8548 (18720)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 42.2¢	$31.66	$28.5	-$1.12	54% 531-449 (980)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$24.53	$22.46	-$2.07	47% 7476-8278 (15754)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Knicksavg 62¢	$9.33	$9.71	+$0.38	51% 26809-25398 (52207)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 37¢	$5.88	$5.64	-$0.24	53% 2663-2346 (5009)

AppleTiiime

Knicks

Invested

$1,854.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$46.35

Record

55%

70-58 (128)

6512395314597884CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,751.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$211.18

Record

51%

4834-4701 (9535)

38791873984189CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$386.11

Value

$316.21

PnL

-$30.25

Record

48%

62067-66946 (129013)

OddstormARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$199.98

Value

$141.7

PnL

+$5.16

Record

48%

7431-7968 (15399)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$93.6638.3¢+$8.11

Knicks$54.3764¢-$2.95

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$93.47

Value

$91.9

PnL

-$1.57

Record

54%

18314-15419 (33733)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$59.7836.7¢-$1.93

Knicks$33.6963.8¢+$0.36

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$65.78

Value

$61.48

PnL

-$2.45

Record

54%

10172-8548 (18720)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$31.66

Value

$28.5

PnL

-$1.12

Record

54%

531-449 (980)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$24.53

Value

$22.46

PnL

-$2.07

Record

47%

7476-8278 (15754)

Flaznorp<$100

Knicks

Invested

$9.33

Value

$9.71

PnL

+$0.38

Record

51%

26809-25398 (52207)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

2663-2346 (5009)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.