Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 230.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 60¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 9

Over40¢Under60¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$78.22

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 60¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares7,733

Combined PnL+$225.98

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,994

Combined PnL-$147.76

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 56.9¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$164.01	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 57¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$61.57	49% 115-119 (234)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 44¢	$2.2K	$899.78	-$77.43	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 42¢	$554.72	$554.7	-$0.02	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 43.5¢	$395.09	$367.1	-$27.98	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 43¢	$750	$300	-$22.5	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
BI biying99999CTR	Overavg 43¢	$304.44	$286.74	-$17.7	48% 150-163 (313)
E4 e46m3<$100	Underavg 59¢	$46.7	$47.1	+$0.4	62% 35806-22243 (58049)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 43.5¢	$48.74	$19.74	-$1.46	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$40.28	$16.31	-$0.2	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$38.88	$15.75	-$0.19	53% 14307-12631 (26938)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$5	$2.02	-$0.27	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,974.44

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$164.01

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$1,380.06

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$61.57

Record

49%

115-119 (234)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,217.24

Value

$899.78

PnL

-$77.43

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$554.72

Value

$554.7

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$395.09

Value

$367.1

PnL

-$27.98

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$750

Value

$300

PnL

-$22.5

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

biying99999CTR

Over

Invested

$304.44

Value

$286.74

PnL

-$17.7

Record

48%

150-163 (313)

e46m3<$100

Under

Invested

$46.7

Value

$47.1

PnL

+$0.4

Record

62%

35806-22243 (58049)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.74

Value

$19.74

PnL

-$1.46

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.28

Value

$16.31

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.88

Value

$15.75

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

14307-12631 (26938)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$0.27

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.