Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 55¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 9

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 17%

Total Value

$24.7K

Combined PnL

$35.21

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares26,414

Combined PnL+$118.47

Over10 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares22,400

Combined PnL-$83.27

Under — 17%Over — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 54.1¢	$13.9K	$14.0K	+$107.76	49% 115-119 (234)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$10.0K	$4.5K	+$32.56	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$9.5K	$4.4K	-$94.56	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
BI biying99999CTR	Overavg 45.6¢	$679.45	$677.95	-$1.5	48% 150-163 (313)
nigiri99	Underavg 53¢	$378.16	$388.86	+$10.71	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$750	$341.25	-$11.25	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 48¢	$422.32	$192.16	-$10.56	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$22.35	$85.48	+$2.51	62% 35806-22243 (58049)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 46¢	$100	$45.5	-$0.5	53% 14307-12631 (26938)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$43.47	$19.78	-$0.22	48% 4163-4497 (8660)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$39.73	$18.08	+$0.2	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$7.67	$3.49	+$0.04	49% 2102-2190 (4292)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$13,899.05

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$107.76

Record

49%

115-119 (234)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$9,979.99

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$32.56

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$9,538.33

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$94.56

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

biying99999CTR

Over

Invested

$679.45

Value

$677.95

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

150-163 (313)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$378.16

Value

$388.86

PnL

+$10.71

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$750

Value

$341.25

PnL

-$11.25

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$422.32

Value

$192.16

PnL

-$10.56

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

e46m3CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.35

Value

$85.48

PnL

+$2.51

Record

62%

35806-22243 (58049)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$45.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

14307-12631 (26938)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.47

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$0.22

Record

48%

4163-4497 (8660)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.73

Value

$18.08

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.67

Value

$3.49

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.