Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 55¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 10

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$211.52

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 54.5¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares20,111

Combined PnL+$747.01

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares12,786

Combined PnL-$535.48

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (14 on Under) disagree here.

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Underavg 50¢	$4.7K	$5.1K	+$423.61	25% 84-258 (342)
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.3K	-$425.47	8% 2-23 (25)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.4¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$178.13	30% 29-67 (96)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$27.16	30% 104-243 (347)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$49.31
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$723.81	$672.11	-$22.16
PP ppku6298CTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$107.62	0% 0-59 (59)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$70	— 0-9 (9)
nigiri99	Underavg 51¢	$636.48	$680.16	+$43.68	43% 26-35 (61)
GC GC-P	Underavg 51.3¢	$388.9	$413.09	+$24.19	5% 11-190 (201)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 53.5¢	$325.21	$331.22	+$6.01	46% 38-45 (83)
NM NM-P	Underavg 49¢	$189	$190.75	+$1.75	6% 11-164 (175)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$56.4	$54.6	-$1.8	52% 59-54 (113)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51.9¢	$24.83	$24.37	-$0.46	53% 85-74 (159)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 49¢	$10.67	$10.77	+$0.1	22% 46-161 (207)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.59	$9.09	-$0.5	69% 27-12 (39)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 45.6¢	$6.03	$6.02	-$0.01	54% 230-199 (429)
AY ay118CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$1.54	$1.46	-$0.08	0% 0-41 (41)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$4,706.78

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$423.61

Record

25%

84-258 (342)

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$4,727.5

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$425.47

Record

2-23 (25)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,922.62

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$178.13

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,400.3

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$27.16

Record

30%

104-243 (347)

Both legs:

Under$1,676.4951¢+$49.31

Over$723.8149¢-$22.16

ppku6298CTR

Over

Invested

$1,552.25

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$107.62

Record

0-59 (59)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$1,019.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$70

Record

—

0-9 (9)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$636.48

Value

$680.16

PnL

+$43.68

Record

43%

26-35 (61)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$388.9

Value

$413.09

PnL

+$24.19

Record

11-190 (201)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$325.21

Value

$331.22

PnL

+$6.01

Record

46%

38-45 (83)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$189

Value

$190.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

11-164 (175)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.4

Value

$54.6

PnL

-$1.8

Record

52%

59-54 (113)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$24.83

Value

$24.37

PnL

-$0.46

Record

53%

85-74 (159)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$10.67

Value

$10.77

PnL

+$0.1

Record

22%

46-161 (207)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.59

Value

$9.09

PnL

-$0.5

Record

69%

27-12 (39)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.03

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

ay118CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.08

Record

0-41 (41)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (14 on Under) disagree here.

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.