Spread: Warriors (-6.5)

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (11%) · Warriors at 60¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 10

Warriors60¢Pelicans40¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 11%

Total Value

$27.5K

Combined PnL

-$346.67

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Warriors60%

Pelicans41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors1 trader

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares29,130

Combined PnL-$867.54

Pelicans8 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares24,875

Combined PnL+$520.87

Warriors — 11%Pelicans — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 4

Diverging

sniperWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Warriorsavg 62.5¢	$18.2K	$17.3K	-$867.54	— 4-3 (7)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pelicansavg 37.3¢	$8.6K	$3.5K	+$267.46	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
nigiri99CTR	Pelicansavg 37.9¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$183.68	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
HI hi774cCTR	Pelicansavg 37.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$42.18	46% 5712-6614 (12326)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pelicansavg 37.5¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$103.39	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pelicansavg 37¢	$106.02	$115.37	+$9.35	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 37¢	$55.68	$55	-$0.68	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 37.3¢	$51.49	$50.94	-$0.55	50% 49324-48846 (98170)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 40¢	$82	$33.21	+$0.41	57% 22821-16910 (39731)

bigbeliever

Warriors

Invested

$18,199.84

Value

$17.3K

PnL

-$867.54

Record

—

4-3 (7)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$8,578.11

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$267.46

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

nigiri99CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$2,708.02

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$183.68

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

hi774cCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$1,838.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$42.18

Record

46%

5712-6614 (12326)

FlaznorpCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$1,593.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$103.39

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

38791873984189CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$106.02

Value

$115.37

PnL

+$9.35

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$55.68

Value

$55

PnL

-$0.68

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$51.49

Value

$50.94

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

49324-48846 (98170)

NM-PCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$82

Value

$33.21

PnL

+$0.41

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 4

Diverging

sniperWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.