Spread: Warriors (-4.5)

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (20%) · Warriors at 74¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 10

Warriors74¢Pelicans26¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 20%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.6K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 74¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors74%

Pelicans26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors2 traders

Total Value$25.6K

Total Shares34,569

Combined PnL+$915.59

Pelicans8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares16,719

Combined PnL+$163.5

Warriors — 20%Pelicans — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Warriorsavg 71.4¢	$24.5K	$25.4K	+$910.88	— 4-3 (7)
RN1CTR	Pelicansavg 28.6¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$295.75	54% 233-201 (434)
GA GaditimaCTR	Pelicansavg 27.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$83.47	48% 32-35 (67)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pelicansavg 31.5¢	$500.37	$392.32	-$38.75	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 31.5¢	$278.46	$229.58	-$48.88
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 69.6¢	$153.02	$162.74	+$10.13
AU auros2ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 70.5¢	$329.49	$296.24	-$0.71	—
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 70.5¢	$151.13	$158.57	+$7.43
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 28.1¢	$148.85	$137.68	-$8.14
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pelicansavg 31.4¢	$263.5	$254.99	-$8.51	52% 242-224 (466)
DA darkumbreon88	Warriorsavg 67¢	$134.48	$139.18	+$4.7	2% 7-311 (318)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Pelicansavg 29¢	$114.5	$121.51	+$7.01	48% 35-38 (73)
nigiri99CTR	Pelicansavg 33¢	$132.76	$104.52	-$28.24	43% 28-37 (65)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 31¢	$62	$52	-$10	10% 11-104 (115)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 30.8¢	$71.64	$48.68	-$8	48% 173-188 (361)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 32¢	$18.97	$17.94	-$1.03	23% 82-268 (350)

bigbeliever

Warriors

Invested

$24,530.77

Value

$25.4K

PnL

+$910.88

Record

—

4-3 (7)

RN1CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$2,332.33

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$295.75

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

GaditimaCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$1,213.87

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$83.47

Record

48%

32-35 (67)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$500.37

Value

$392.32

PnL

-$38.75

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Pelicans$278.4631.5¢-$48.88

Warriors$153.0269.6¢+$10.13

auros2ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$329.49

Value

$296.24

PnL

-$0.71

Record

—

Both legs:

Warriors$151.1370.5¢+$7.43

Pelicans$148.8528.1¢-$8.14

FlaznorpCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$263.5

Value

$254.99

PnL

-$8.51

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

darkumbreon88

Warriors

Invested

$134.48

Value

$139.18

PnL

+$4.7

Record

7-311 (318)

LuckyLooCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$114.5

Value

$121.51

PnL

+$7.01

Record

48%

35-38 (73)

nigiri99CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$132.76

Value

$104.52

PnL

-$28.24

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$62

Value

$52

PnL

-$10

Record

10%

11-104 (115)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$71.64

Value

$48.68

PnL

-$8

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$18.97

Value

$17.94

PnL

-$1.03

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.