Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Pelicans (57%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Warriors (-13.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (40%) · Warriors at 43¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10

Warriors43¢Pelicans57¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$12.17

Smart Money Entry

40.7¢ → 42.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors43%

Pelicans57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors2 traders

Total Value$197.02

Total Shares453

Combined PnL+$12.48

Pelicans3 traders

Total Value$20.41

Total Shares36

Combined PnL-$0.3

Warriors — 40%Pelicans — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPelicans 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pelicansavg 59.3¢	$358.32	$349.07	-$9.25	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 59.3¢	$271.07	$262.78	-$8.3
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 43¢	$87.25	$86.3	-$0.95
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pelicansavg 56.7¢	$369.02	$303.54	+$19.23	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 56.7¢	$174.48	$176.89	+$2.41
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 39.3¢	$117.12	$126.65	+$16.82
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Pelicansavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	100% 28-0 (28)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 50¢	$100	$113	+$13
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 50¢	$100	$87	-$13
LI LimousinCTR	Warriorsavg 40.7¢	$182.43	$194.88	+$12.45	24% 90-282 (372)
0xheavy888<$100	Pelicansavg 56¢	$11.2	$11.3	+$0.1	69% 29-13 (42)
RL RLWG<$100	Pelicansavg 59¢	$5.9	$5.65	-$0.25	22% 28-97 (125)
RN1<$100	Pelicansavg 59¢	$6.12	$3.46	-$0.15	54% 233-201 (434)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 42¢	$2.11	$2.14	+$0.03	52% 242-224 (466)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$358.32

Value

$349.07

PnL

-$9.25

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Pelicans$271.0759.3¢-$8.3

Warriors$87.2543¢-$0.95

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$369.02

Value

$303.54

PnL

+$19.23

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Pelicans$174.4856.7¢+$2.41

Warriors$117.1239.3¢+$16.82

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

28-0 (28)

Both legs:

Invested

$182.43

Value

$194.88

PnL

+$12.45

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

0xheavy888<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

RLWG<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$0.25

Record

22%

28-97 (125)

RN1<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$6.12

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPelicans 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.