Spread: Warriors (-11.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (60%) · Pelicans at 51¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 10

Warriors50¢Pelicans50¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.2K

Combined PnL

-$193.21

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 50.5¢

-9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors50%

Pelicans51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,499

Combined PnL-$277.73

Warriors4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,136

Combined PnL+$84.52

Pelicans — 60%Warriors — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPelicans 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pelicans 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Warriorsavg 48¢	$11.4K	$11.1K	-$319.21	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 48¢	$6.0K	$6.3K	+$311.88
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 56¢	$5.4K	$4.8K	-$631.09
HI hi774c	Pelicansavg 56¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$258.95	3% 9-249 (258)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Warriorsavg 49¢	$875.98	$902.8	+$26.82	30% 105-246 (351)
nigiri99CTR	Warriorsavg 46.5¢	$573.72	$622.67	+$48.94	43% 28-37 (65)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pelicansavg 55.2¢	$400.58	$264.65	-$23.23	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 55.2¢	$159.87	$143.45	-$28.06
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 48.5¢	$116.37	$121.2	+$4.83
RN1	Pelicansavg 56¢	$140	$123.75	-$16.25	54% 233-201 (434)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Pelicansavg 49¢	$88.2	$89.1	+$0.9	3% 4-156 (160)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Warriorsavg 42.9¢	$110	$55.55	+$8.35	26% 87-252 (339)
0xheavy888<$100	Pelicansavg 52.4¢	$26.2	$24.75	-$1.45	69% 29-13 (42)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pelicansavg 56¢	$14	$12.37	-$1.63	48% 173-188 (361)
RL RLWG<$100	Pelicansavg 54¢	$5.4	$4.95	-$0.35	22% 28-97 (125)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 43¢	$2.32	$2.73	+$0.41	45% 38-46 (84)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$11,401.5

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$319.21

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Warriors$5,975.1948¢+$311.88

Pelicans$5,426.3156¢-$631.09

hi774c

Pelicans

Invested

$2,231

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$258.95

Record

9-249 (258)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Warriors

Invested

$875.98

Value

$902.8

PnL

+$26.82

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

nigiri99CTR

Warriors

Invested

$573.72

Value

$622.67

PnL

+$48.94

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$400.58

Value

$264.65

PnL

-$23.23

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Pelicans$159.8755.2¢-$28.06

Warriors$116.3748.5¢+$4.83

RN1

Pelicans

Invested

$140

Value

$123.75

PnL

-$16.25

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$88.2

Value

$89.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

4-156 (160)

LightParadoxCTR

Warriors

Invested

$110

Value

$55.55

PnL

+$8.35

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

0xheavy888<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$26.2

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$1.45

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

Pan9X<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$14

Value

$12.37

PnL

-$1.63

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

RLWG<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$5.4

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.35

Record

22%

28-97 (125)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.41

Record

45%

38-46 (84)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPelicans 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pelicans 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.