Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 52¢ · $545 held · ends Nov 7

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$544.98

Combined PnL

-$4.03

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$320.91

Total Shares608

Combined PnL-$3.87

Under4 traders

Total Value$224.07

Total Shares457

Combined PnL-$0.16

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Overavg 51¢	$221.85	$224.03	+$2.18	58% 270-192 (462)
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 48.8¢	$185.56	$184.27	-$1.29	61% 4155-2622 (6777)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 50¢	$38.94	$40.39	+$1.17	54% 18310-15408 (33718)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 52¢	$40.56	$40.17	-$0.39	46% 8689-10363 (19052)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$27.38	$28.57	+$1.19	50% 26109-25769 (51878)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 52¢	$40.13	$13.12	-$0.01	54% 10096-8478 (18574)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48.1¢	$7.46	$7.4	-$0.06	52% 8853-8042 (16895)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$3.91	$3.83	+$0	51% 3835-3755 (7590)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 52¢	$125.69	$3.2	-$6.81	58% 47075-33957 (81032)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Over

Invested

$221.85

Value

$224.03

PnL

+$2.18

Record

58%

270-192 (462)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$185.56

Value

$184.27

PnL

-$1.29

Record

61%

4155-2622 (6777)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$38.94

Value

$40.39

PnL

+$1.17

Record

54%

18310-15408 (33718)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$40.56

Value

$40.17

PnL

-$0.39

Record

46%

8689-10363 (19052)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.38

Value

$28.57

PnL

+$1.19

Record

50%

26109-25769 (51878)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$40.13

Value

$13.12

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

10096-8478 (18574)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.46

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

8853-8042 (16895)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.91

Value

$3.83

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3835-3755 (7590)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$125.69

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$6.81

Record

58%

47075-33957 (81032)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.