Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 51¢ · $63K held · ended Nov 5

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.6K

Combined PnL

-$497.23

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 51¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$23.5K

Total Shares46,130

Combined PnL-$432.34

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,848

Combined PnL-$64.89

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$32.0K	$32.3K	+$387.53	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$18.5K	$18.9K	+$382.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$13.5K	$13.5K	+$4.9
TM TMingchan	Underavg 51¢	$10.2K	$10.3K	+$100	60% 15-10 (25)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Underavg 53¢	$10.6K	$10.1K	-$503.16	52% 946-882 (1828)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$51.22	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$31.07
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.7¢	$512.75	$532.91	+$20.15
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Underavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$30	66% 3663-1846 (5509)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 50.6¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$92.05	50% 25501-25206 (50707)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	+$12.36	58% 45483-32930 (78413)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$986.72	$966.5	-$20.22	51% 1797-1721 (3518)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.2¢	$798.72	$772.5	-$26.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$188	$194	+$6
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 49.9¢	$828.48	$811.89	-$16.59	53% 60086-52456 (112542)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.9¢	$513.22	$488.55	-$24.67
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$315.27	$323.34	+$8.08
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$748.87	$761.46	+$12.59	40% 1349-2039 (3388)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$382.5	$386.25	+$3.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.4¢	$366.37	$375.21	+$8.84
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$628.92	$630.54	+$1.62	48% 59342-63357 (122699)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.9¢	$413.65	$410.76	-$2.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$215.27	$219.78	+$4.51
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 47¢	$538.15	$566.78	+$28.63	46% 8412-9883 (18295)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Underavg 51.2¢	$511.63	$500	-$11.63	53% 1083-955 (2038)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$83.5	$61.32	+$0.21	58% 19476-14320 (33796)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$33.13	$32.44	-$0.69	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$30	$14.25	-$0.75	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 52.3¢	$7.85	$7.73	-$0.12	50% 8206-8232 (16438)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$7.04	$7.04	+$0	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.35	-$0.03	52% 8584-7828 (16412)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$31,961.99

Value

$32.3K

PnL

+$387.53

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

Both legs:

Under$18,472.0150.5¢+$382.63

Over$13,489.9848.5¢+$4.9

TMingchan

Under

Invested

$10,200

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

60%

15-10 (25)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Under

Invested

$10,603.15

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$503.16

Record

52%

946-882 (1828)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,691.39

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$51.22

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

Both legs:

Under$1,178.6450.2¢+$31.07

Over$512.7546.7¢+$20.15

JAMJAMJAM4

Under

Invested

$1,529.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$30

Record

66%

3663-1846 (5509)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$1,306.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$92.05

Record

50%

25501-25206 (50707)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,430.58

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$12.36

Record

58%

45483-32930 (78413)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$986.72

Value

$966.5

PnL

-$20.22

Record

51%

1797-1721 (3518)

Both legs:

Under$798.7253.2¢-$26.22

Over$18847¢+$6

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$828.48

Value

$811.89

PnL

-$16.59

Record

53%

60086-52456 (112542)

Both legs:

Over$513.2249.9¢-$24.67

Under$315.2751.2¢+$8.08

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$748.87

Value

$761.46

PnL

+$12.59

Record

40%

1349-2039 (3388)

Both legs:

Under$382.551¢+$3.75

Over$366.3747.4¢+$8.84

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$628.92

Value

$630.54

PnL

+$1.62

Record

48%

59342-63357 (122699)

Both legs:

Under$413.6550.9¢-$2.89

Over$215.2748.5¢+$4.51

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$538.15

Value

$566.78

PnL

+$28.63

Record

46%

8412-9883 (18295)

TheComboConnoisseur

Under

Invested

$511.63

Value

$500

PnL

-$11.63

Record

53%

1083-955 (2038)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$83.5

Value

$61.32

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

19476-14320 (33796)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.13

Value

$32.44

PnL

-$0.69

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$7.85

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

8206-8232 (16438)

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.04

Value

$7.04

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

8584-7828 (16412)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.