Spread: Rockets (-8.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (43%) · Timberwolves at 56¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 5

Rockets44¢Timberwolves56¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.7K

Combined PnL

$367.66

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 56.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

6 of 14 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets44%

Timberwolves56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves6 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares29,719

Combined PnL+$588.7

Rockets8 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares15,420

Combined PnL-$221.05

Timberwolves — 43%Rockets — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpRockets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRockets 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IA ianf2026	Timberwolvesavg 54.5¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$45.06	49% 95-99 (194)
BA Babooou	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$4.1K	$4.3K	+$240	51% 228-218 (446)
HO HomeRunHazard	Timberwolvesavg 50.8¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$206.27	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
VI vibing123	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$179.66	51% 1611-1521 (3132)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Rocketsavg 47.2¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$75.9	52% 5953-5563 (11516)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Rocketsavg 45¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$81.24	50% 4971-4900 (9871)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$27.22
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$918.38	$972.4	+$54.02
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Rocketsavg 48¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$84	67% 3670-1848 (5518)
SE sentrioCTR	Rocketsavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$51.61	50% 25577-25281 (50858)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Rocketsavg 45.8¢	$888.83	$899.4	+$10.57	40% 1398-2089 (3487)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 45.8¢	$552.73	$555.03	+$2.3
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 52.7¢	$336.1	$344.38	+$8.28
VeryLucky888CTR	Rocketsavg 45.5¢	$912.5	$554.12	+$23.18	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Timberwolvesavg 53.2¢	$532.48	$540	+$7.52	53% 1083-956 (2039)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$330.71	$342.81	+$12.09	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$183.28	$194.06	+$10.78
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 45.6¢	$147.44	$148.75	+$1.31
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Rocketsavg 44¢	$232.59	$243.16	+$10.57	60% 4424-2918 (7342)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$180	$184	+$4	51% 1831-1762 (3593)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$218	$170.61	-$47.39	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Timberwolvesavg 65¢	$20.43	$20.74	+$0.31	50% 4274-4238 (8512)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.3	+$0.1	52% 8633-7856 (16489)

ianf2026

Timberwolves

Invested

$4,486.82

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$45.06

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

Babooou

Timberwolves

Invested

$4,080

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$240

Record

51%

228-218 (446)

HomeRunHazard

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,284.71

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$206.27

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

vibing123

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,060.72

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$179.66

Record

51%

1611-1521 (3132)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Rockets

Invested

$2,886.94

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$75.9

Record

52%

5953-5563 (11516)

hi774cARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2,143.38

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$81.24

Record

50%

4971-4900 (9871)

Both legs:

Rockets$1,22545¢+$27.22

Timberwolves$918.3851¢+$54.02

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Rockets

Invested

$2,015.98

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$84

Record

67%

3670-1848 (5518)

sentrioCTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,324.71

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$51.61

Record

50%

25577-25281 (50858)

NM-PARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$888.83

Value

$899.4

PnL

+$10.57

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

Both legs:

Rockets$552.7345.8¢+$2.3

Timberwolves$336.152.7¢+$8.28

VeryLucky888CTR

Rockets

Invested

$912.5

Value

$554.12

PnL

+$23.18

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

TheComboConnoisseur

Timberwolves

Invested

$532.48

Value

$540

PnL

+$7.52

Record

53%

1083-956 (2039)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$330.71

Value

$342.81

PnL

+$12.09

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$183.2851¢+$10.78

Rockets$147.4445.6¢+$1.31

SunlineTickerCTR

Rockets

Invested

$232.59

Value

$243.16

PnL

+$10.57

Record

60%

4424-2918 (7342)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Rockets

Invested

$180

Value

$184

PnL

+$4

Record

51%

1831-1762 (3593)

FlaznorpCTR

Rockets

Invested

$218

Value

$170.61

PnL

-$47.39

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$20.43

Value

$20.74

PnL

+$0.31

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

6 of 14 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpRockets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRockets 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.