Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Timberwolves (51%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (45%) · Rockets at 50¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 5

Rockets50¢Timberwolves50¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

-$32.94

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 49.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets50%

Timberwolves51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets5 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares12,456

Combined PnL-$112.54

Timberwolves6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,575

Combined PnL+$79.6

Rockets — 45%Timberwolves — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Rocketsavg 50.5¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$51.3	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
AP AppleTiiime	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$34.75	55% 60-49 (109)
IC ic4creamCTR	Rocketsavg 51.3¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$54.99	57% 2701-2002 (4703)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Rocketsavg 50.4¢	$878.5	$875	-$3.5	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$437.5	$441.88	+$4.38
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 50.4¢	$441	$433.13	-$7.88
nigiri99CTR	Rocketsavg 50¢	$635.5	$629.15	-$6.36	46% 8410-9880 (18290)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49.8¢	$285.34	$285.82	+$0.48	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 49.8¢	$144.65	$146.54	+$1.89
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 50¢	$140.69	$139.28	-$1.41
GC GC-P	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$250	$252.5	+$2.5	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
DV dv-pm	Timberwolvesavg 48.2¢	$180.45	$224.89	+$1.5	49% 3294-3423 (6717)
VeryLucky888	Timberwolvesavg 47.7¢	$478.87	$179.52	+$8.24	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
RN1	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$125	$126.25	+$1.25	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
FL Flaznorp	Timberwolvesavg 46¢	$90.16	$121.52	+$31.36	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 49¢	$10.75	$10.75	+$0	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 49¢	$9.8	$9.9	+$0.1	48% 59324-63332 (122656)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Rockets

Invested

$4,306.89

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$51.3

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

AppleTiiime

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,474.72

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$34.75

Record

55%

60-49 (109)

ic4creamCTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,610.28

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$54.99

Record

57%

2701-2002 (4703)

NM-PARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$878.5

Value

$875

PnL

-$3.5

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$437.550¢+$4.38

Rockets$44150.4¢-$7.88

nigiri99CTR

Rockets

Invested

$635.5

Value

$629.15

PnL

-$6.36

Record

46%

8410-9880 (18290)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$285.34

Value

$285.82

PnL

+$0.48

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$144.6549.8¢+$1.89

Rockets$140.6950¢-$1.41

GC-P

Timberwolves

Invested

$250

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

dv-pm

Timberwolves

Invested

$180.45

Value

$224.89

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

3294-3423 (6717)

VeryLucky888

Timberwolves

Invested

$478.87

Value

$179.52

PnL

+$8.24

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

RN1

Timberwolves

Invested

$125

Value

$126.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Flaznorp

Timberwolves

Invested

$90.16

Value

$121.52

PnL

+$31.36

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

sentrioCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$10.75

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.