Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 61¢ · $40 held · ends Nov 11

Over39¢Under61¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$40.12

Combined PnL

$0.31

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$31

Total Shares48

Combined PnL-$0

Over2 traders

Total Value$9.13

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$0.31

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 64¢	$21.1	$21.1	-$0	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$6.13	$6.29	+$0.16	47% 148-167 (315)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 64¢	$5.12	$5.12	+$0	50% 274-269 (543)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 64¢	$4.77	$4.77	+$0	31% 169-382 (551)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$2.69	$2.83	+$0.15	25% 213-642 (855)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$21.1

Value

$21.1

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.13

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$0.16

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

274-269 (543)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.69

Value

$2.83

PnL

+$0.15

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.