Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 223.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 54¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 75%
$13.8K
$18.14
56¢ → 53.5¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $6.1K | $6.4K | +$278.47 | 49% 95-99 (194) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 56¢ | $4.5K | $4.3K | -$143.24 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 56¢ | $3.1K | $3.0K | -$111.18 | 8% 37-420 (457) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 56¢ | $140 | $90.12 | -$5.03 | 49% 231-238 (469) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 55.2¢ | $21.74 | $21.06 | -$0.68 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $11 | $10.8 | -$0.2 | 55% 106-85 (191) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.68 | -$0.02 | 24% 155-504 (659) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.33 | +$0.03 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
Invested
$6,126.34
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$278.47
Record
49%
95-99 (194)
Invested
$4,457.98
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$143.24
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$3,113
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$111.18
Record
8%
37-420 (457)
VeryLucky888Invested
$140
Value
$90.12
PnL
-$5.03
Record
49%
231-238 (469)
Invested
$21.74
Value
$21.06
PnL
-$0.68
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$11
Value
$10.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
55%
106-85 (191)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$0.02
Record
24%
155-504 (659)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.33
PnL
+$0.03
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.