Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 49¢ · $337 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$337.04
$1.36
49.8¢ → 48.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadoxCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $146.37 | $144.91 | -$1.46 | 24% 202-628 (830) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 50.6¢ | $87.96 | $89.45 | +$1.49 | 57% 3070-2308 (5378) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 49.4¢ | $184.38 | $68.18 | +$1.67 | 48% 208-228 (436) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $20.42 | $20.22 | -$0.2 | 34% 162-314 (476) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $11.93 | $11.81 | -$0.12 | 29% 155-375 (530) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.48 | -$0.02 | 22% 134-483 (617) |
Invested
$146.37
Value
$144.91
PnL
-$1.46
Record
24%
202-628 (830)
Invested
$87.96
Value
$89.45
PnL
+$1.49
Record
57%
3070-2308 (5378)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$184.38
Value
$68.18
PnL
+$1.67
Record
48%
208-228 (436)
Invested
$20.42
Value
$20.22
PnL
-$0.2
Record
34%
162-314 (476)
Invested
$11.93
Value
$11.81
PnL
-$0.12
Record
29%
155-375 (530)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.02
Record
22%
134-483 (617)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.