Bucks vs. Knicks

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (43%) · Knicks at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Bucks14¢Knicks86¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$9.46

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 86.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bucks14%

Knicks87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$795.95

Total Shares920

Combined PnL+$0.5

Bucks4 traders

Total Value$155.58

Total Shares1,152

Combined PnL-$9.96

Knicks — 43%Bucks — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Knicksavg 86.4¢	$680.28	$680.76	+$0.48	43% 26-34 (60)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Knicksavg 86¢	$564.16	$560.13	-$4.03	46% 38-45 (83)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 86¢	$388.05	$390.31	+$2.26
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 14¢	$176.11	$169.82	-$6.29
PU purplegattoCTR	Bucksavg 14.6¢	$111.61	$103.04	-$8.57	2% 3-159 (162)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Knicksavg 85¢	$59.38	$59.73	+$0.35	2% 7-301 (308)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Knicksavg 86¢	$55.79	$55.47	-$0.32	31% 60-136 (196)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Bucksavg 14¢	$24.08	$23.22	-$0.86	0% 0-48 (48)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bucksavg 13.7¢	$21.88	$21.63	-$0.25	49% 374-391 (765)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bucksavg 14¢	$7.98	$7.69	-$0.28	47% 166-184 (350)

nigiri99

Knicks

Invested

$680.28

Value

$680.76

PnL

+$0.48

Record

43%

26-34 (60)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$564.16

Value

$560.13

PnL

-$4.03

Record

46%

38-45 (83)

Both legs:

Knicks$388.0586¢+$2.26

Bucks$176.1114¢-$6.29

purplegattoCTR

Bucks

Invested

$111.61

Value

$103.04

PnL

-$8.57

Record

3-159 (162)

darkumbreon88<$100

Knicks

Invested

$59.38

Value

$59.73

PnL

+$0.35

Record

7-301 (308)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Knicks

Invested

$55.79

Value

$55.47

PnL

-$0.32

Record

31%

60-136 (196)

OddstormCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$24.08

Value

$23.22

PnL

-$0.86

Record

0-48 (48)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$21.88

Value

$21.63

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

374-391 (765)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$7.98

Value

$7.69

PnL

-$0.28

Record

47%

166-184 (350)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.