Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Knicks (71%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Knicks (-9.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (100%) · Bucks at 30¢ · $520 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
4
Bucks 100%
1 arb excluded
$519.6
$0.25
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+25 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Knicksavg 69.4¢ | $568.21 | $452.93 | +$9.71 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 69.4¢ | $270.38 | $276.51 | +$7.64 | |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 28.9¢ | $175.69 | $176.42 | +$2.07 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 29.2¢ | $40.39 | $40.18 | -$0.21 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 29¢ | $38.55 | $13.12 | +$0.84 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 29¢ | $7.87 | $7.87 | -$0 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 31¢ | $5.89 | $5.51 | -$0.38 | 26% 234-663 (897) |
Invested
$568.21
Value
$452.93
PnL
+$9.71
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Both legs:
Invested
$40.39
Value
$40.18
PnL
-$0.21
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$38.55
Value
$13.12
PnL
+$0.84
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$7.87
Value
$7.87
PnL
-$0
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
Invested
$5.89
Value
$5.51
PnL
-$0.38
Record
26%
234-663 (897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.