Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Knicks (83%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (100%) · Bucks at 18¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 11

Knicks83¢Bucks17¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 100%

Total Value

$156.89

Combined PnL

$9.62

Smart Money Entry

16.4¢ → 17.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 83%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Knicks83%

Bucks18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks6 traders

Total Value$156.89

Total Shares890

Combined PnL+$9.62

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Bucksavg 15.8¢	$76.13	$84.34	+$8.21	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Bucksavg 17¢	$43.29	$44.56	+$1.27	25% 216-657 (873)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Bucksavg 18¢	$10.8	$10.5	-$0.3	25% 218-637 (855)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bucksavg 18¢	$9.21	$9.15	-$0.06	25% 217-656 (873)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bucksavg 16¢	$5.8	$6.34	+$0.54	31% 170-384 (554)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Bucksavg 17.9¢	$2.04	$2	-$0.04	25% 218-645 (863)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$76.13

Value

$84.34

PnL

+$8.21

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

VenusianCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$43.29

Value

$44.56

PnL

+$1.27

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$9.21

Value

$9.15

PnL

-$0.06

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$5.8

Value

$6.34

PnL

+$0.54

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$2.04

Value

PnL

-$0.04

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 83%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.3%

17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$419.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

519.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.