Spread: Knicks (-15.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (44%) · Bucks at 51¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 11

Knicks50¢Bucks50¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$4.79

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks50%

Bucks51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares9,074

Combined PnL-$46.13

Bucks4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares9,468

Combined PnL+$50.92

Knicks — 56%Bucks — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBucks 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HG hgawxCTR	Knicksavg 50¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$47.81	2% 1-43 (44)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bucksavg 50¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$23.9	54% 1609-1354 (2963)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bucksavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.81	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
LI Limousin	Bucksavg 50¢	$483.57	$488.41	+$4.84	24% 201-647 (848)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Knicksavg 51¢	$113.53	$102.5	+$1.69	48% 767-833 (1600)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 47¢	$50.29	$53.5	+$3.21
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 51¢	$51	$49	-$1.52
SN SnakeBall<$100	Bucksavg 48¢	$80.99	$84.36	+$3.37	47% 147-167 (314)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Knicksavg 48¢	$76.32	$78.71	+$2.39	48% 218-232 (450)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Knicksavg 51¢	$17.82	$17.12	-$0.7	48% 409-445 (854)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Knicksavg 50¢	$10	$9.9	-$0.1	57% 103-79 (182)
73 739633786CTR<$100	Knicksavg 49¢	$8.82	$8.91	+$0.09	3% 5-185 (190)

hgawxCTR

Knicks

Invested

$4,511

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$47.81

Record

1-43 (44)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bucks

Invested

$2,390.47

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$23.9

Record

54%

1609-1354 (2963)

HomeRunHazard

Bucks

Invested

$1,774.45

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.81

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Limousin

Bucks

Invested

$483.57

Value

$488.41

PnL

+$4.84

Record

24%

201-647 (848)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$113.53

Value

$102.5

PnL

+$1.69

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

Both legs:

Invested

$80.99

Value

$84.36

PnL

+$3.37

Record

47%

147-167 (314)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$76.32

Value

$78.71

PnL

+$2.39

Record

48%

218-232 (450)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$17.82

Value

$17.12

PnL

-$0.7

Record

48%

409-445 (854)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$10

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

57%

103-79 (182)

739633786CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$8.82

Value

$8.91

PnL

+$0.09

Record

5-185 (190)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBucks 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.