Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Knicks (64%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Knicks (-11.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (100%) · Bucks at 36¢ · $164 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
5
Bucks 100%
$164.36
$0.97
35.5¢ → 36¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 36%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 35¢ | $69.46 | $71.45 | +$2 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 36¢ | $41.13 | $41.16 | +$0.02 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 36¢ | $37.8 | $36.75 | -$1.05 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 35¢ | $12.2 | $12.2 | +$0 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 35¢ | $2.8 | $2.8 | +$0 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
Invested
$69.46
Value
$71.45
PnL
+$2
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$41.13
Value
$41.16
PnL
+$0.02
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$36.75
PnL
-$1.05
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$12.2
Value
$12.2
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.