Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Knicks (67%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (83%) · Bucks at 33¢ · $50 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
6
Bucks 83%
$49.74
$0.87
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 33%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Knicksavg 66¢ | $21.12 | $21.44 | +$0.32 | 61% 894-574 (1468) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 30¢ | $8.1 | $8.91 | +$0.81 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 34¢ | $7.48 | $7.26 | -$0.22 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 34¢ | $6.12 | $5.94 | -$0.18 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 32¢ | $4.4 | $4.54 | +$0.14 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.65 | +$0 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
Invested
$21.12
Value
$21.44
PnL
+$0.32
Record
61%
894-574 (1468)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$8.91
PnL
+$0.81
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
Invested
$7.48
Value
$7.26
PnL
-$0.22
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$5.94
PnL
-$0.18
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.54
PnL
+$0.14
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.