Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bucks vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 108.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 48¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$3.7K
$0.98
49.5¢ → 47.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Underavg 49.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$73.1 | 60% 422-286 (708) |
JO JoeyAroyyOO | Overavg 49.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$70.17 | 49% 95-99 (194) |
PU purplegatto | Overavg 51.4¢ | $448.21 | $457.8 | +$9.59 | 69% 2572-1165 (3737) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 50.9¢ | $128.5 | $114.61 | -$4.71 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $24.47 | $23.51 | -$0.96 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
Invested
$1,863.4
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$73.1
Record
60%
422-286 (708)
Invested
$1,197.94
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$70.17
Record
49%
95-99 (194)
Invested
$448.21
Value
$457.8
PnL
+$9.59
Record
69%
2572-1165 (3737)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$128.5
Value
$114.61
PnL
-$4.71
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$24.47
Value
$23.51
PnL
-$0.96
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.