Spread: Timberwolves (-21.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (67%) · Bucks at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
6
Bucks 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
$2.62
75.4¢ → 99.5¢
+32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Bucksavg 77¢ | $1.8K | $864.08 | +$9.81 | 51% 21013-19995 (41008) |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 77¢ | $604.19 | $495.58 | -$108.69 | |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolvesavg 25¢ | $250 | $368.5 | +$118.5 | |
65 6512395314597884 | Bucksavg 75¢ | $1.0K | $671 | -$79 | 51% 4308-4134 (8442) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Bucksavg 76.6¢ | $321.91 | $333.85 | +$11.94 | 47% 13872-15352 (29224) |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 76.6¢ | $179.69 | $175.87 | -$3.82 | |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolvesavg 22.5¢ | $142.21 | $157.98 | +$15.77 | |
FE ferdinand2 | Bucksavg 77¢ | $185.33 | $166.8 | +$24.09 | 48% 5736-6182 (11918) |
 RN1CTR | Timberwolvesavg 23¢ | $383.74 | $141.41 | +$53.15 | 54% 58465-50687 (109152) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Bucksavg 79¢ | $34.76 | $39.15 | +$4.39 | 52% 610-554 (1164) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Bucksavg 77¢ | $6.94 | $6.76 | -$0.18 | 52% 6773-6135 (12908) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 22¢ | $1.25 | $1.43 | +$0.17 | 45% 13215-16086 (29301) |
Invested
$1,784.77
Value
$864.08
PnL
+$9.81
Record
51%
21013-19995 (41008)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,000
Value
$671
PnL
-$79
Record
51%
4308-4134 (8442)
Invested
$321.91
Value
$333.85
PnL
+$11.94
Record
47%
13872-15352 (29224)
Both legs:
Invested
$185.33
Value
$166.8
PnL
+$24.09
Record
48%
5736-6182 (11918)
RN1CTRInvested
$383.74
Value
$141.41
PnL
+$53.15
Record
54%
58465-50687 (109152)
Invested
$34.76
Value
$39.15
PnL
+$4.39
Record
52%
610-554 (1164)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.94
Value
$6.76
PnL
-$0.18
Record
52%
6773-6135 (12908)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.43
PnL
+$0.17
Record
45%
13215-16086 (29301)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.