Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Celtics (57%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Celtics (-9.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (75%) · Bucks at 43¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 5

Celtics57¢Bucks43¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$64.35

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 42.5¢

-7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics57%

Bucks43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,592

Combined PnL+$107.74

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$496.19

Total Shares963

Combined PnL-$43.38

Bucks — 75%Celtics — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Celticsavg 56.5¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$142.47	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 56.5¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$152.66
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.19
73 739633786CTR	Bucksavg 45¢	$952.65	$1.0K	+$74.09	44% 382-483 (865)
HI hi774c	Celticsavg 56¢	$538.36	$495.1	-$43.26	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Bucksavg 44.7¢	$306.58	$332.71	+$26.13	60% 4421-2917 (7338)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 47.6¢	$233.32	$237.67	+$4.36	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
RN1CTR	Bucksavg 47.4¢	$141.22	$144.46	+$3.24	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Bucksavg 50.2¢	$6.04	$5.83	-$0.21	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	Celticsavg 57.2¢	$1.22	$1.09	-$0.12	47% 497-566 (1063)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Bucksavg 42¢	$0.8	$0.93	+$0.12	40% 1343-2037 (3380)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2,770.62

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$142.47

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

Both legs:

Celtics$1,718.9756.5¢-$152.66

Bucks$1,051.6548¢+$10.19

739633786CTR

Bucks

Invested

$952.65

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$74.09

Record

44%

382-483 (865)

hi774c

Celtics

Invested

$538.36

Value

$495.1

PnL

-$43.26

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

SunlineTickerCTR

Bucks

Invested

$306.58

Value

$332.71

PnL

+$26.13

Record

60%

4421-2917 (7338)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$233.32

Value

$237.67

PnL

+$4.36

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

RN1CTR

Bucks

Invested

$141.22

Value

$144.46

PnL

+$3.24

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

e46m3CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$6.04

Value

$5.83

PnL

-$0.21

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.12

Record

47%

497-566 (1063)

NM-PCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.12

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.