Spread: Jazz (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (40%) · Heat at 80¢ · $897 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
5
Heat 40%
1 arb excluded
$896.86
$41.77
75.8¢ → 79.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 80%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Heatavg 75.7¢ | $563.09 | $591.07 | +$27.98 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Jazzavg 24¢ | $100 | $100.85 | +$0.85 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 26¢ | $86.22 | $99.48 | +$13.26 | 28% 274-715 (989) |
 nigiri99ARB<$100 | Jazzavg 23¢ | $91.82 | $98.24 | +$6.41 | 52% 128-120 (248) |
| └ Jazz leg | Jazzavg 23¢ | $56.3 | $62.48 | +$6.18 | |
| └ Heat leg | Heatavg 74¢ | $35.52 | $35.76 | +$0.24 | |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 24¢ | $3.65 | $3.72 | +$0.08 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Heatavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.5 | -$0.4 | 34% 233-457 (690) |
Invested
$563.09
Value
$591.07
PnL
+$27.98
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Invested
$100
Value
$100.85
PnL
+$0.85
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$86.22
Value
$99.48
PnL
+$13.26
Record
28%
274-715 (989)
nigiri99ARB<$100Invested
$91.82
Value
$98.24
PnL
+$6.41
Record
52%
128-120 (248)
Both legs:
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.72
PnL
+$0.08
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$0.4
Record
34%
233-457 (690)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.