Spread: Heat (-6.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (64%) · Heat at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Heat59¢Jazz41¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$46.5

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 58.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat59%

Jazz42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,727

Combined PnL-$25.1

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$304

Total Shares760

Combined PnL-$21.4

Heat — 64%Jazz — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Heatavg 59.2¢	$692.03	$471.05	-$20.97	50% 262-258 (520)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Heatavg 60¢	$410.8	$394.82	-$15.98	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 60¢	$238.8	$234.82	-$3.98
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 43¢	$172	$160	-$12
HO HomeRunHazard	Heatavg 59¢	$367.68	$367.97	+$0.28	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Heatavg 58.2¢	$230.97	$229.94	-$1.03	52% 128-119 (247)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 58.2¢	$173.35	$174.33	+$0.98
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 43¢	$57.62	$55.61	-$2.01
FL FlaznorpCTR	Jazzavg 42.9¢	$186.6	$174	-$12.6	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
LI LimousinCTR	Jazzavg 42.7¢	$128	$120	-$8	26% 234-672 (906)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Heatavg 59¢	$102.41	$100.52	-$1.89	32% 184-398 (582)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 59¢	$58.08	$57.59	-$0.49
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 42.9¢	$44.33	$42.93	-$1.4
RL RLWG<$100	Heatavg 60¢	$87.9	$86.44	-$1.47	68% 1593-744 (2337)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Heatavg 60¢	$40.12	$39.45	-$0.67	47% 149-168 (317)
PA Pan9X<$100	Heatavg 60¢	$57.27	$33.98	-$2.89	49% 440-464 (904)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	Heatavg 58¢	$32.83	$33.4	+$0.57	49% 488-513 (1001)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Jazzavg 43¢	$8.6	$8	-$0.6	56% 119-94 (213)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Heatavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.95	+$0.05	26% 177-517 (694)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 44¢	$2.2	$2	-$0.2	26% 234-653 (887)

VeryLucky888

Heat

Invested

$692.03

Value

$471.05

PnL

-$20.97

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$410.8

Value

$394.82

PnL

-$15.98

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Invested

$367.68

Value

$367.97

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$230.97

Value

$229.94

PnL

-$1.03

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

Both legs:

Heat$173.3558.2¢+$0.98

Jazz$57.6243¢-$2.01

FlaznorpCTR

Jazz

Invested

$186.6

Value

$174

PnL

-$12.6

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

LimousinCTR

Jazz

Invested

$128

Value

$120

PnL

-$8

Record

26%

234-672 (906)

sentrioARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$102.41

Value

$100.52

PnL

-$1.89

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

Both legs:

Invested

$87.9

Value

$86.44

PnL

-$1.47

Record

68%

1593-744 (2337)

SnakeBall<$100

Heat

Invested

$40.12

Value

$39.45

PnL

-$0.67

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

Pan9X<$100

Heat

Invested

$57.27

Value

$33.98

PnL

-$2.89

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

Heat

Invested

$32.83

Value

$33.4

PnL

+$0.57

Record

49%

488-513 (1001)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$8.6

Value

PnL

-$0.6

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

ameisgoat11<$100

Heat

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

26%

234-653 (887)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heat

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.