Spread: Heat (-2.5)

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (20%) · Heat at 73¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Heat73¢Jazz27¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 20%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$26.32

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 72.5¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat73%

Jazz28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat2 traders

Total Value$951.11

Total Shares1,347

Combined PnL+$52.84

Jazz8 traders

Total Value$350.28

Total Shares1,117

Combined PnL-$26.52

Heat — 20%Jazz — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Heatavg 65.3¢	$658.33	$730.65	+$72.32	70% 1655-702 (2357)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Heatavg 69¢	$538.3	$520.92	-$17.38	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 69¢	$364.31	$366.9	+$2.58
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 34.5¢	$173.99	$154.03	-$19.97
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jazzavg 34.8¢	$468.76	$330.53	-$15.38	48% 947-1017 (1964)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 34.8¢	$243.38	$223.77	-$19.61
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 65.1¢	$102.27	$106.76	+$4.23
DA darkumbreon88	Heatavg 70.7¢	$239.94	$220.46	-$19.48	61% 900-577 (1477)
nigiri99CTR	Jazzavg 31.9¢	$145.43	$121.8	-$15.63	52% 128-120 (248)
VE VenusianCTR	Jazzavg 32.3¢	$108.04	$91.85	-$16.19	28% 278-729 (1007)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Jazzavg 36¢	$40.22	$39.1	-$1.12	48% 190-206 (396)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Jazzavg 30¢	$33.6	$34.16	+$0.56	68% 1595-745 (2340)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 30¢	$27.66	$32.27	+$4.61	28% 274-715 (989)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jazzavg 31.9¢	$48.08	$20.56	+$0.51	49% 443-470 (913)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Jazzavg 29¢	$5.79	$5.69	-$0.1	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jazzavg 29¢	$4.03	$4.86	+$0.83	34% 233-457 (690)

SunlineTicker

Heat

Invested

$658.33

Value

$730.65

PnL

+$72.32

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$538.3

Value

$520.92

PnL

-$17.38

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

Both legs:

Heat$364.3169¢+$2.58

Jazz$173.9934.5¢-$19.97

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$468.76

Value

$330.53

PnL

-$15.38

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Both legs:

Jazz$243.3834.8¢-$19.61

Heat$102.2765.1¢+$4.23

darkumbreon88

Heat

Invested

$239.94

Value

$220.46

PnL

-$19.48

Record

61%

900-577 (1477)

nigiri99CTR

Jazz

Invested

$145.43

Value

$121.8

PnL

-$15.63

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

VenusianCTR

Jazz

Invested

$108.04

Value

$91.85

PnL

-$16.19

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$40.22

Value

$39.1

PnL

-$1.12

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

RLWGCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$33.6

Value

$34.16

PnL

+$0.56

Record

68%

1595-745 (2340)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$27.66

Value

$32.27

PnL

+$4.61

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$48.08

Value

$20.56

PnL

+$0.51

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$5.79

Value

$5.69

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$4.03

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$0.83

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.